A new Emerson College Polling survey has Ohio Democrats riding unexpected momentum heading into the 2026 elections, tightening two major statewide races and signaling trouble for Republicans who once dominated the state.
The poll, released Thursday, shows both the governor’s race and U.S. Senate contest narrowing sharply since August, a shift that lines up with some surveys showing a decline in approval of the GOP among Ohio voters.
Emerson surveyed 850 voters between Dec. 6 and 8, using cellphone voter lists and an online panel. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.3%.
The biggest shake-up comes in the governor’s race. Democrat Amy Acton has surged seven points and now leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 46% to 45%. In August, Ramaswamy held a commanding 49% to 39% advantage. That lead has effectively evaporated.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Acton’s rise is driven largely by women voters. Four months ago, women were nearly split — 44% for Ramaswamy, 42% for Acton. Acton now leads that group 56% to 37%. Men still strongly favor Ramaswamy, backing him 55% to 35%, nearly identical to August numbers.
Milwaukee, Wisconsin USA – August 23rd, 2023: Vivek Ramaswamy before the FOX News Republican Debate
The Senate race remains steadier but still shows movement. Republican Sen. Jon Husted continues to lead Democrat Sherrod Brown 49% to 46%, though Husted slipped a point while Brown gained two since August.
With both major statewide races now within the margin of error, Ohio, once considered a safe Republican stronghold, is shaping up as a far more competitive battleground for 2026. However, Trump’s expected return to the campaign trail in the new year could quell Democrat uprisings before they begin.
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