Firebrand GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) is inching closer to overtaking New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, according to the latest poll results.

Stefanik, who has not yet declared herself a candidate for the 2026 contest, is nonetheless the frontrunner in a shadow primary of Republican would-be challengers angling to take on the embattled Democratic incumbent. Since dropping her bid for U.N. ambassador earlier this year, the five-term lawmaker has let it be known that she’s eager to seek out her next career move.

If she chooses the race for New York governor, Stefanik will be sitting pretty against Hochul, who intends to seek reelection. The upstate New York Republican trails by just 5 points in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, according to the results of an internal poll commissioned by her political operation.

Other surveys have shown Stefanik essentially tied with Hochul after trailing by 6 points in April.

The results underscore how badly wounded Hochul has become amid New York’s ongoing migrant crisis and the emergence of Zohran Mamdani, the socialist candidate for mayor who appears headed to a decisive win next month.

Making matters worse for Hochul, her lead disappears if voters become more informed about her record, according to the poll.

Stefanik trails behind Hochul, 48% to 43%, assuming all other factors remain equal. But when voters learn that Hochul endorsed Mamdani — who has called for rent control, city-run grocery stores, and accused Israel of genocide — it’s Stefanik who posts a narrow lead over the Democrat, 46.4% to 45.9%.

If Mamdani becomes mayor of the Big Apple, a full 47% of independent voters say they’d be less likely to support Hochul or any New York Democrat through the midterms.

Voters also give Hochul poor marks on her job performance, with 56% disapproving compared to 39% still in her corner. Some of the most controversial elements of her record include support for bail reform and other cost-of-living concerns, according to the NY Post.

Pollster Landon Wall, who commissioned the poll for Stefanik’s E-PAC, said his survey of 1,250 shows Hochul is in a “deeply vulnerable position.”

“Kathy Hochul’s coalition is historically fragile: soft support from her own voters, significant growing appetite for change, and her endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents,” Wall wrote in a summary of the poll’s findings.

“The data overwhelmingly points to unprecedented vulnerability for an incumbent New York Democrat Governor, and a race that Republicans can win,” he added.

Before she’d face the pro-Trump Stefanik, Hochul must contend with a primary challenge by Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who announced his candidacy earlier this year. She easily bests him 43% to 14%, but still fails to collect support from more than half of the Democratic primary electorate.

“A sitting Governor unable to secure majority support from her own party indicates substantial vulnerability,” Wall said, describing Hochul as “one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the country.”

Stefanik is expected to have a clear path to her party’s nomination after other prospects like Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) decided against jumping into the race.

“The data is clear that Kathy Hochul, the worst Governor in America, is a deeply embattled and historically unpopular failed Governor who is struggling to even gain support from her own party,” Stefanik said in a statement.

“It is now crystal clear why Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the Communist Antisemite running for Mayor of New York City because she desperately needed to shore up her own party,” the House Republican Leadership chairwoman continued. “Kathy Hochul has destroyed New York State, creating an affordability crisis with the highest taxes in the nation, and the highest energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills.”

In the meantime, expect to see Stefanik capitalize on made-for-TV zingers like her attack on Hochul during her congressional testimony earlier this year. Some of those unfortunate moments are self-inflicted, as when Hochul arrived in Long Island for the start of the Ryder Cup only to be booed off the stage.

Download the FREE Trending Politics app to get the latest news first >>

, 2025-10-08 13:57:00, , Trending Politics Conservative Breaking News and Commentary, %%https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/cropped-tp-fav-2-32×32.png, https://trendingpoliticsnews.com/feed/, Mark Steffen