A top-rated pollster that historically produces favorable results for Democrats did not do so this time, as Vice President JD Vance found himself with a sizable lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a hypothetical 2028 presidential election matchup.

With the 2028 primary cycle still more than two years away, the California governor has enjoyed a sizable bump in Democratic Party primary polls over the last several weeks. Newsom has confirmed his interest in running and has made several attempts to bolster his national profile over the last several weeks, including a number of out of state trips and high-profile podcast conversations with prominent conservatives.

He has also taken an adversarial stance against the Trump Administration by filing a number of legal challenges against executive policies, as well as a successful redistricting effort that is projected to net Democrats an extra five seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

As a result, Newsom has experienced a polling surge and now finds himself neck-and-neck with former Vice President Kamala Harris in the Race to the WH Democratic Party polling average.

A new survey from the Morning Consult kept in line with polling trends in finding a tight race between Harris and Newsom at this early juncture, with Harris reclining 29 percent of the vote compared to Newsom’s 20 percent among 984 Democrats and Democrat-leaning respondents. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg — who has long been found to have a dedicated but limited base of support — in a distant third with eight percent, just a point ahead of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).

A significant number of respondents, 22 percent, selected “someone else” when asked about the four hypothetical candidates, while an additional 13 percent remained unsure.

On the Republican side of the aisle, Morning Consult found solid and growing support for Vice President Vance. The November 7-9 poll of 936 Republican and Republican-leaning voters found Vance leading the field with 45 percent, up from 37 percent in November.

The poll did not measure support for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as the secretary recently said he has no intention of challenging Vance in 2028 and suggested that he would endorse his campaign. Additional hypothetical candidates in Donald Trump Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., neither of whom have signaled interest in a 2028 bid, with single-digit support.

In a hypothetical matchup with either Harris or Newsom, the poll provided a positive result for Vance, who trailed Harris by just one percentage point. The result comes as President Trump has suffered a recent dip in approval, and is well within the margin of error.

The result was even more encouraging for Vance in a hypothetical face-off against Newsom, as Morning Consult found him leading by one percentage point.

“Vance performs marginally better among the overall electorate and independents against Harris and Newsom than Rubio, ostensibly a stand-in name for a generic Republican given his lower-profile role in the Trump administration,” Morning Consult U.S. politics analyst Eli Yokley wrote in the poll’s summary. He went on to note that Harris received positive favorability numbers in the poll, adding that her built-in name recognition could provide her an advantage in both a Democratic Party field and a general election.

“What is clear, though, is that despite intraparty divisions over who should be on the ballot in 2028, the electorate is closely divided over the question about who should be elected to lead the country after Trump leaves office despite their dissatisfaction with his current performance,” he added.

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