Alternative gauges are helping to shed light on the precarious position of the economy with the publication of official data frozen by the government shutdown.

Economic data on inflation and especially the labor market are in high demand by the Federal Reserve and economists. With official data unavailable, private firms and companies are looking to fill the void.

Economists and the Fed have been closely analyzing every economic report, given indications that the labor market is slowing and inflation remains too high. Crucially, the most recent jobs report for September has already been delayed.

CONSUMER SENTIMENT FELL AS GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN

In some good news for the Fed, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has called back some furloughed employees to help release the consumer price index, the most closely tracked inflation gauge.

It is unclear whether other key inflation gauges, such as the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index and the producer price index, will be released if the shutdown continues. The Washington Examiner asked the BLS for comment, but didn’t receive an immediate response.

However, there are other gauges filling the void. During the shutdown, economists and the Fed will be examining all of these factors in an effort to glean valuable economic information that was lost due to the furloughs.

Jobs

Employment data is currently top of mind for economists. This is because the labor market has begun to meaningfully soften, something that has raised alarms about the possibility of an economic downturn and has caused the Fed to begin cutting interest rates as a means of support.

The economy added just 22,000 jobs in August, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The July jobs report also revealed that some 258,000 fewer jobs were added in May and June than previously reported. Additionally, the government announced that labor market growth for the 12 months ending in March was 911,000 jobs less than previously reported.

Perhaps the most closely watched analogue for the BLS’s monthly employment reports is from payroll company ADP, which releases its monthly numbers just ahead of the official reports.

That report, released last week, showed that private employers cut some 32,000 jobs in September, a concerning sign.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas also released a September report based on layoff data from state departments of labor. It found that U.S. employers announced just over 54,000 job cuts in September, a 37% drop from the number of job cuts announced in August.

That report also found that, when it comes to hiring plans, employers plan to add about 205,000 jobs, which is the lowest such number since the Great Recession.

The mixed data from the report lend credence to the notion that the economy is in a “low fire, low hire” state, a phenomenon that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has also discussed.

Investment firm Carlyle Group also released its employment data this week. The firm predicted that employers added a mere 17,000 jobs in September, well below what was expected by forecasters in the official September jobs report by the BLS.

David Wilcox, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and director of U.S. economic research at Bloomberg Economics, previously worked for years at the Fed, including as director of the central bank’s division of research and statistics.

Wilcox told the Washington Examiner that despite the various analogues, there is “no replacing” the official reports.

“Certainly, the federal data are the gold standard of what’s available to the Fed,” he said.

Inflation

Even more challenging to make up for is if the inflation data lapses. The BLS releases several inflation reports, including the consumer price index, which is the one people typically refer to when citing annual inflation numbers.

Alternatives to the raw inflation data from the government are not quite as abundant as employment gauges.

“On prices, they’re even more at sea,” said Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute. “The best nonfederal stats on prices are probably on rents from places like Zillow, but rents are not the driver of inflation in recent years — it’s other parts of the economy where there really are no substitutes.”

The Morning Consult released its price surprise index for September this week, a sentiment-based gauge that measures people’s perceptions of prices. That gauge increased for the fifth straight month across most goods and services, but was led by goods inflation.

“In groceries, alcohol, and clothing, both price surprise and sensitivity increased,” the report said. “Consumers are becoming more shocked by prices and more likely to walk away, pointing to rising price resistance in these everyday categories.”

DataSembly’s grocery price index monitors price changes in groceries. The group found that, in September, the overall grocery price index decreased slightly, with eggs and seafood driving the most change, according to a release.

Economists and the Fed will also be tracking price changes in rent from Zillow, and the National Association of Realtors tracks existing home sales, including changes in prices.

WHITE HOUSE PRESSURES DEMOCRATS OVER SHUTDOWN DELAYS TO KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Notably, while there is a bit of a data blackout because of the shutdown, the financial markets have barely flinched. In fact, the three leading U.S. stock indices, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq, have closed at record highs multiple times since the shutdown began.

Trump has historically been highly attuned to the stock market as a barometer of his job, so the strong performance gives him another reason to allow the shutdown to continue.

, 2025-10-11 10:00:00, , Washington Examiner, %%https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/cropped-favicon.png?w=32, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/feed/, Zach Halaschak