Trump assassination attempt: We were inches from a civil war

By all appearances, a crazed would-be assassin just missed killing former president Donald Trump by a few inches. One or more of the shots, according to early news reports, killed an onlooker sitting behind Trump.

To be clear: the shooter missed sparking a bloody civil war by two inches.

The shooter’s intentions almost do not matter. Donald Trump is so reviled by a large faction of this country and so beloved by another faction, that were he murdered it would spark more violence.

President Joe Biden would be, to borrow a phrase of his, “put in the bullseye.” Trump supporters would look for ways to retaliate. Violent antifa extremists would rise in support of the assassin.

Consider what happened when Hamas murdered and raped thousands of Israelis in October—anti-Israel activists emerged from the woodwork to attack Israel. Think about what happened after a transgender shooter murdered students at the Christian school she had attended: there was an attempt to rally around the transgender community.

Both Trump-haters and Trump-defenders would have been spurred to action. And there’s plenty of reason to believe things would have gotten pretty bad in this case.

The United States has not had a political assassination in the memory of most Americans. If Trump were eliminated, it would—to be crass for a moment—help Democrats’ chances in November. If one party improved its political odds through murder, the reaction would be extremely violent.

I don’t believe we would have had a years-long civil war if Trump were assassinated. But we would have had weeks or months of political violence.

The best economic recovery program is church thumbnail

The best economic recovery program is church

Going to church won’t protect you from hurricanes or other disasters, but it sure will help you out afterward. And even if you’re not religious, the best insurance plan might be to live in a churchy community.

That’s not a matter of faith — it’s the finding of economics.

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Corinthian Baptist Church members help tornado victims in Dayton, Ohio, on May 28, 2019, after powerful tornadoes ripped through the state. (Seth Herald/AFP via Getty Images)

Three economists recently published a paper in The Economic Journal of the Royal Economic Society, finding that more religious counties recovered more quickly from natural disasters.

The hurricane season of 2005 was disastrous for the American South. A record 15 hurricanes formed in the Atlantic that season. Katrina was the most infamous, but Emily, Rita, and Wilma also hit land as Category 5 storms.

These storms, among other harms, massively disrupted businesses, driving down productivity in the severely affected places (like New Orleans) compared to the less affected places.

In some hard-hit places, businesses got back on their feet faster and more fully than in others that were just as walloped. It turns out that the more resilient counties were the ones with more church attendance and religious adherence. Controlling for wealth, population, and social capital, the researchers found “that establishments in counties with high religious intensity are less affected by hurricanes’ adverse impacts.”

How exactly does religious adherence accelerate economic recovery? The authors explored that puzzle in the South, but across America, you can see the positive effects of religion on economic recovery.

Take Michigan, where both the Detroit area and the Holland-Grand Rapids area were hit hard by the auto industry’s struggles in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. West Michigan rebounded much faster and much more robustly.

The locals credit the Protestant work ethic in Holland and Grand Rapids, where the Christian Reformed Church and the Reformed Church in America are headquartered. “You’ve got a conscientious workforce,” retired factory worker Gary Gunnink argued from a McDonald’s in Holland. “The old Dutch work ethic,” his buddy Bill Stehouwer added.

Maybe they’re right. Maybe religion makes people more resilient, more hopeful, and harder working. Surely this operates not simply through belief, but through belonging and connection within religious institutions.

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The economists also cited the increased ties to one’s ancestors among the religious compared to the nonreligious. If you think of the pre-disaster economy as something you inherited, you might be more attached to keeping it alive.

Whatever the mechanism, it’s another reason to worry that the secularization of America is a bad thing — and another reason to pray for a 21st-century Great Awakening.

Gen X had children and became Republican thumbnail

Gen X had children and became Republican

Former President Donald Trump’s strongest base of support in the general election, if you divide voters up by age, appears to be Generation X.

Trump leads President Joe Biden by 19 points among those ages 45 to 65, roughly Gen X, while the race is within the margin of error for boomers, millennials, and Generation Z.

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(Illustration by Tatiana Lozano / Washington Examiner; AP and Getty Images)

The extraordinary generation gap has spurred endless speculation and recrimination among very online millennial pundits.

One simple explanation is that Gen X isn’t all that Trumpy but that it has very good real-world reasons to support the Republican Party over Biden’s Democratic Party.

Gen Xers got jobs, paid off student loans, got married in their 20s, and had children. This isn’t just a story. It’s the facts. The average age at first marriage in the early 2000s was about 25 for women and a bit higher for men — meaning the average Gen Xer was married with a job within a decade of leaving school.

The birth rate was higher in the late 1990s and the early 2000s, when Gen X was the bulk of the baby-makers. Once the millennials entered their mid- to late 20s, the birthrate fell and kept plummeting. Births have fallen almost every year since 2007 and are now down more than 16%.

So the people who became grown-ups in a normal way are Republicans now. Trump expanded our child tax credit, and under him, the economy was really good, with nearly no inflation.

Millennials, to their discredit, have always cared more about national politics — they care more about other people’s business, families, and communities than they ought to and are less interested in forming families or being involved in their neighborhood than they ought to be.

“I guess Donald Trump as the end point of Gen X nihilism makes sense,” very online millennial liberal pundit Matt Yglesias concluded.

If you think life is about what happens on NPR and CNN and in Congress, then yes, folks who care mostly about their family and neighborhood look like nihilists.

Sure, Trump made politics crazy, but under him, the economy was more normal. If you wanted to mind your family and your job, the Trump era was better than the Biden era. The worst part of the Trump era was the nonsense forced on us by Biden’s party and defended by Biden to this day: the lockdowns and school closures.

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Biden’s party took over school boards, closed schools for a year, and abandoned regular curricula in exchange for preaching racial determinism and transgenderism.

So maybe it’s that simple: If you want a normal life of family, community, and work, you are more likely to be Republican, and the folks most likely to be parents are the most likely to desire normality.