VANCE ON UKRAINE: TRUMP WILL ‘BRING THIS THING TO A RAPID CLOSE’: Former President Donald Trump’s selection of Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) to be his running mate foreshadows that bottomless U.S. aid to Ukraine is just months away from bottoming out. 

During his Trump-endorsed campaign for Senate in Ohio, Vance famously opined, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another. He considers Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a puppet of the Biden administration and the war in Ukraine a lost cause, views also espoused by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In a speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, Vance laid out his view that America has neither the money nor the industrial capacity to continue to prop up Ukraine in a war that has no end in sight, arguing against sending further aid to Ukraine. “I have to be honest to you, that is not going to fundamentally change the reality on the battlefield,” Vance said. 

Last night, in an appearance on Fox News following his formal nomination to be vice president, Vance told host Sean Hannity that further aid to Ukraine would just be throwing good money after bad. “We have now spent $200 billion. What’s the goal? What are we trying to accomplish? Is there a risk of escalation into nuclear war? Because there is when you have a buffoon running foreign policy, and we have got a lot of them right now in Washington, D.C.”

“I think what President Trump has promised to do is go in there, negotiate with the Russians and Ukrainians, bring this thing to a rapid close, so that America can focus on the real issue, which is China,” Vance said. “That’s the biggest threat to our country. And we’re completely distracted from it.”

ZELENSKY: 6-MONTH DELAY MEANT UKRAINE ‘LOST THE INITIATIVE’: In his first news conference since returning to Ukraine after the NATO conference in Washington, Zelensky touted the results of his intensive lobbying for continued support, which he said “encompasses everything from money to weaponry, from humanitarian aid to reconstruction, cybersecurity, air defense, and more,” valued at $38 billion.

But Zelesnky also said Ukraine needs much more, it’s going to regain the momentum lost while House Republicans blocked military assistance for six months, allowing Russia to gain the upper hand on the front lines. While he secured the promise of five more air defense systems, he said Ukraine needs at least 25 Patriot missile batteries to defend critical infrastructure, including the energy grid, which has been degraded by about 50% over the past year.

He is also pressing for more than the 20 F-16s, which are scheduled to be delivered in two waves, one this summer and a second by the end of the year.

Regarding the prospect of a Trump election, which could curtail or end U.S. aid to Ukraine, Zelensky said, “I am not afraid,” expressing his belief that the majority of Republicans in Congress remain steadfast in their belief that Ukraine must prevail in its war with Russia.

O’BRIEN: BIDEN ‘ALWAYS A HALF-STEP TOO LATE’: At an event on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention, Robert O’Brien, one of Trump’s former national security advisers, placed the blame for Ukraine’s current predicament on President Joe Biden’s delays early on as he feared escalation with Russia.

“We’ve been too little, too late with all the weapons we’ve given to Zelensky,” O’Brien said during an event sponsored by CNN and Politico. “Every time the Ukrainians were on the verge of winning and getting their territory back — we prevented them from getting Polish MiGs; I was talking about the Polish foreign minister. They were prepared early in the war to give them MiGs. We said no. F-16s, they came too little, too late.”

“I applaud the Biden folks for giving Ukraine aid, but it’s always been a half-step too late,” he added.

O’Brien argued that Trump will pursue a “muscular, tough foreign policy” that won’t disappoint wary European allies and will project certainty in the face of Russian and Chinese aggression,” according to Politico, but avoided weighing in on the question of whether Biden should restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory.

US ‘TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE’ ON UKRAINE AID, TRUMP’S EX-NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER SAYS

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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HAPPENING TODAY: The Republican National Convention heads into its second day, with Donald Trump and JD Vance being officially nominated last night for president and vice president, respectively. Vance is scheduled to speak tomorrow night, and Trump will give his formal acceptance speech Thursday night.

Tonight’s headliner is a last-minute addition, Nikki Haley, the former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor who was Trump’s last-standing primary rival, and who only agreed to speak on his behalf after Saturday’s attempt on his life.

Trump received an energetic standing ovation as he entered the arena with a bandage on his right ear, with the crowd at one point waving their fists in the air chanting, “Fight, Fight, Fight,” mimicking Trump’s response on the stage in the moments after a bullet winged him.

Tonight’s agenda was initially set to focus on immigration and border security, but expect to hear many mentions of Trump’s show of strength following his brush with death.

SOUTHERN BORDER ARRESTS DROP IN JUNE TO LOWEST EVER UNDER BIDEN

BIDEN: IT WAS A MISTAKE TO USE THE WORD’: In an interview that aired last night, President Joe Biden said he regretted his choice of words when, in a private call with donors last week, he said it was “time to put Trump in the bullseye.”

“What I guess I was talking about at the time was there was very little focus on Trump’s agenda,” Biden told NBC’s Lester Holt. “Yeah, the term was “bullseye,” Holt pointed out.

“It was a mistake to use the word. I didn’t mean — I didn’t say ‘cross-hairs.’ I meant ‘bullseye.’ I meant focus on him. Focus on what he’s doing. Focus on his policies. Focus on the number of lies he told in the debate.”

When Holt turned to the subject of who Biden listens to on the question of whether he should stay in the race, Biden replied, “Me.”

“Look, I’ve been doing this a long time. The idea that I’m the old guy, I am. I’m old. But I’m only three years older than Trump, number one. And number two, my mental acuity’s been pretty damn good,” Biden said.

“I’ve gotten more done than any president has in a long, long time in three and a half years. So I’m willing to be judged on that. I understand. I understand why people say, “God, he’s 81 years old. Whoa. What’s he gonna be when he’s 83 years old, or 84 years?” It’s a legitimate question to ask.”

BIDEN ADMITS ‘MISTAKE’ IN USING THE WORD ‘BULLSEYE’ WHILE TALKING ABOUT TRUMP

STARTLING NEW DETAILS ON SECURITY AT TRUMP RALLY: Citing a local law enforcement officer in Butler, Pennsylvania, CBS News is reporting that the building that Thomas Matthew Crooks used as the perch for his rooftop firing position to target former President Trump was occupied at the time by a police sniper team, who actually saw Crooks outside and looking up at the roof.

Crooks disappeared but then came back. “At that point, one of the snipers took a picture of him. Crooks took out a rangefinder, and the sniper radioed to the command post. Crooks disappeared again and then came back a third time with a backpack. The snipers called in with information that he had a backpack and said he was walking towards the back of the building,” the report said. “By the time other officers came for backup, he had climbed on top of the building and was positioned above and behind the snipers inside the building,” the officer told CBS.

As the FBI and Congress open investigations into the security lapses that allowed Crooks to take a kill shot at Trump, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas conceded in an interview on CNN that Crooks should never have had a clear line of sight to the former president.

“When I say that something like this cannot happen, we are speaking of a failure,” Mayorcas said. “We are going to analyze, through an independent review, how that occurred, why it occurred, and make recommendations and findings to make sure it doesn’t happen again. I couldn’t be clearer.”

OPINION: TRUMP ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT: SECRET SERVICE CRITIQUES VARY BETWEEN THE JUSTIFIED AND THE IGNORANT

THE RUNDOWN:

Washington Examiner: US ‘too little, too late’ on Ukraine aid, Trump’s ex-national security adviser says

Washington Examiner: NATO allies decided to craft Russia strategy with next US president in mind

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Europe can’t ‘Trump-proof’ NATO on the cheap

Washington Examiner: Judge dismisses Trump classified documents case

Washington Examiner: Congress launches bipartisan investigations into Trump assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: House Oversight issues sweeping records request to Secret Service ahead of hearing

Washington Examiner: Gunman should never have had ‘direct line of sight’ to Trump: Mayorkas

Washington Examiner: Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle won’t resign after Trump assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: Secret Service director no longer appearing at security conference following Trump assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: FBI has conducted nearly 100 interviews since Trump assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: FBI gains access to Trump shooter’s phone

Washington Examiner: Biden admits ‘mistake’ in using the word ‘bullseye’ while talking about Trump

Washington Examiner: Biden extends Secret Service detail to RFK Jr. following Trump assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: Bennie Thompson defends bill that could have dropped Trump Secret Service detail

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump assassination attempt: Secret Service critiques vary between the justified and the ignorant

Washington Examiner: Netanyahu says he could be targeted for Trump-style assassination attempt

Washington Examiner: Israel delayed strike on Hamas commander’s compound hoping for more senior leader: Report

Washington Examiner: Southern border arrests drop in June to lowest ever under Biden

Washington Examiner: Biden gets testy when pressed on debate performance

Washington Examiner: ‘I’m tired of the neocons’: Republicans embrace Trump-Vance turn on foreign policy

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Russia gives China another lesson on how to hunt US submarines

New York Times: Ukraine Battles to Contain Russian Advances Across the Front

Aviation Week: Taiwan Optimistic It Will Get 66 F-16s from US by 2026

Breaking Defense: UK Promises ‘New Era’ of Defense with Launch of Strategic Review

New York Times: Taiwan’s Blunt-Talking Leader Faces China’s Backlash

AP: A North Korean diplomat in Cuba defected to South Korea in November, Seoul says

AP: Signs of trouble at Trump rally were evident in minutes before gunman opened fire

AP: Two Suspected Attacks By Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Strike Ships In The Red Sea

Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF ‘Absolutely Committed’ to Keep Minuteman Going While Sentinel Is Delayed

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Appoints First Ever Foreign Officer for Command Staff

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: Pilot Error, Overbearing Supervisor Caused MQ-9 Crash

SpaceNews: US Nuclear Command Satellites Need Hardening Against Attacks, Report Warns

The Cipher Brief: Assassination Attempt on Trump Could Fuel FBI’s Biggest Fear: Terrorism

The Cipher Brief: After Trump Shooting, A Dangerous Flood of Disinformation The Cipher Brief: Israel’s Fragile North and the Art of ‘Intelligence’ Diplomacy

THE CALENDAR: 

TUESDAY | JULY 16

10 a.m. — D-Fend Solutions virtual discussion: “Small Drones – Big Impact: Protecting Our Airspace Before the Big One Hits,” with retired Air Force Col. Dawn Zoldi https://tinyurl.com/5fja25ms

10:30 a.m. EDT — Milwaukee, Wis. — American Jewish Committee discussion: “Israel and the Path to Peace.” https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ajc-at-the-2024-political-conventions

1:00 p.m. — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual discussion: “Leading in the Cyber Competition with China,” with Israel Soong, director, East Asia and Pacific cyber policy, National Security Council; and Miles Yu, senior fellow and director, China Center https://www.hudson.org/events/leading-cyber-competition-china

3 p.m. EDT Grand Hall, Milwaukee, Wis. — European Union discussion: “Transatlantic Approaches to China: Meeting the Major Challenge of the 21st Century: RVVP: bill.burros@eeas.europa.eu

2 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace discussion: “Why Peace Remains Elusive on the Korean Peninsula: Reassessing the U.S. Approach to North Korea 70 Years After the 1954 Geneva Conference,” with Mark Tokola, vice president of the Korea Economic Institute of America; retired, Lt. Gen. Dan Leaf, former deputy command of U.S. Pacific Command; and Frank Aum, USIP Northeast Asia senior expert https://www.usip.org/events/why-peace-remains-elusive

4 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual and in-person book discussion: The New Cold War: How the Contest Between the US and China Will Shape Our Century, with author Sir Robin Niblett, distinguished fellow, Chatham House; and John Hamre, CSIS President and CEO, and Langone Chair in American Leadership https://www.csis.org/events/new-cold-war-conversation-sir-robin-niblett

5 p.m. EDT Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wis. — Republican National Committee holds 2024 Republican National Convention

7 p.m. Aspen, Colo — Aspen Institute annual Aspen Security Forum,with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns; Singaporean Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen; Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, former homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to President Obama; and Homeland Security Adviser Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall https://www.aspensecurityforum.org/2024-asf

WEDNESDAY | JULY 17

3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program virtual discussion: “The Importance of National Resilience: Implications for Taiwan,” with CSIS experts: Seth Jones, senior vice president; Harold Brown chair; and director, International Security Program; Bonny Lin, director, China Power Project and Senior Fellow, Asian Security; Daniel Byman, senior fellow, Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program; and Jude Blanchette, Freeman chair in China Studies, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/importance-national-resilience-implications-taiwan

4 p.m. Aspen, Colo. — 2024 Aspen Security Forum in-person and virtual discussion: “The Next Gen Industrial Base,” with Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, U.S. Space Command: Lt. Gen. Jeff Kruse, director, Defense Intelligence Agency; and Doug Beck, director, Defense Innovation Unit. aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms

4 p.m. — Franciscan Action Network virtual discussion: “Nuclear Weapons: What You Don’t Know Can Hurt You,” with James Acton, co-director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Nuclear Policy Program; Ira Helfand, member of steering group of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons; and Maylene Hughes, regional grassroots organizing and policy coordinator at Physicians for Social Responsibility in Los Angeles https://franciscanactionnetwork.salsalabs.org/nuclearweaponswebinar

6:45 p.m. EDT Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wis. — Republican National Committee holds the 2024 Republican National Convention, with Donald Trump Jr. delivering remarks

8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy virtual discussion: “Defining Success in Ukraine and Gaza,” with Richard Haass, former State Department director of policy planning and former president of the Council on Foreign Relations; and Patt Morrison, columnist for the Los Angeles Times https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/event

THURSDAY | JULY 18

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “How Does the Taiwan Public View the U.S. and China?” with James Lee, assistant research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of European and American Studies; Wen-Chin Wu, research fellow at Academic Sinica’s Institute of Political Science; Hsin-Hsin Pan, associate professor of sociology at Soochow University; and Chien-Huei Wu, research fellow at Academia Sinica’s Institute of European and American Studies https://www.csis.org/events/how-does-taiwan-public-view-us-and-china

11:10 a.m. — Aspen, Colo. — 2024 Aspen Security Forum in-person and virtual discussion: “NATO, Europe, and Ukraine, with Gen. Christopher Cavoli, supreme allied commander Europe and commander, U.S. European Command https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms

12:30 p.m. Aspen, Colo. — 2024 Aspen Security Forum in-person and virtual discussion: “Resiliency and National Security,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms

1:05 p.m. — Aspen, Colo. — 2024 Aspen Security Forum in-person and virtual fireside chat with Gen. Laura Richardson, commander, U.S. Southern Command https://aspeninstitute.wufoo.com/forms

6:45 EDT Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wis. — Republican National Committee holds the 2024 Republican National Convention, with Former President Donald Trump delivering remarks

FRIDAY | JULY 19

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “U.S.-China relation,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns https://www.csis.org/events/fireside-discussion-us-ambassador-china-nicholas-burns

10:30 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual discussion: “Adapting NATO’s Nuclear Posture to Current Threats,” with Vipin Narang, acting assistant defense secretary for space policy; and Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-adapting-natos-nuclear-posture

TUESDAY | JULY 23

6:30 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Va. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” in-person event with Lt. Gen. Sean Gainey, commanding general of U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/ltg-gainey

WEDNESDAY | JULY 24

11:30 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “Cyber landscape, terrorism threat and transnational repression,” with Matthew Olsen, assistant attorney general for national security https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2024/07/24/matt-olsen

2 p.m. House Chamber — Joint meeting of the House and Senate to receive an address from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

BIDEN TAKES CENTER STAGE: President Joe Biden capably delivered a forceful speech, read from a teleprompter, at the opening of this week’s Washington summit marking the 75 anniversary of the NATO alliance. He passed the first test in his effort to show he’s still up to the job of leading not just the United States but also the Western world.

But Biden—who is stubbornly resisting pressure from worried Democrats to give up his reelection bid—will face a much bigger test tomorrow. He is scheduled to hold an unscripted news conference, during which he will be peppered with questions from the global press corps.

“This is a pivotal moment for Europe, for the transatlantic community, and, I might add, for the world,” Biden said. “Russia will not prevail. Ukraine will prevail.”

“And Kyiv — remember, fellows and ladies — was supposed to fall in five days. Remember? Well, it’s still standing two and a half years later and will continue to stand,” Biden said. “Putin thought NATO would break. Today, NATO is stronger than it’s ever been in its history.”

“Make no mistake, Russia is failing in this war. More than two years into Putin’s war of choice, his losses are staggering: more than 350,000 Russian troops dead or wounded; nearly 1 million Russians, many of them young people, have left Russia because they no longer see a future in Russia,” he said. “When this senseless war began, Ukraine was a free country. Today, it is still a free country, and the war will end with Ukraine remaining a free and independent country.”

NATO SUMMIT’S TOP ISSUES: DEFENSE SPENDING, UKRAINE — AND BIDEN

US, ALLIES PROMISE ‘DOZENS’ OF AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS, ‘HUNDREDS’ OF MISSILES: Just two days after the devastating Russian cruise missile attack on Europe’s largest children’s cancer hospital in Kyiv, Biden announced NATO allies would significantly boost Ukraine’s ability to defends against Russia standoff missiles and bombs.

“The United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Italy will provide Ukraine with the equipment for five additional strategic air defense systems, and in the coming months, the United States and our partners intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of additional tactical air defense systems,” Biden said. “All told, Ukraine will receive hundreds of additional interceptors over the next year.”

A fact sheet released by the White House said initially the five systems would include three additional Patriot batteries from the U.S., Germany, and Romania; as well as components donated by the Netherlands and other partners to enable the operation of an additional Patriot battery, as well as a  SAMP-T system donated by Italy. 

“We are coordinating closely with the Ukrainian government so that these systems can be utilized rapidly,” the statement said. “We are working on a further announcement this year of additional strategic air defense systems for Ukraine.”

BIDEN ANNOUNCES NATO EFFORT TO SUPPLY UKRAINE WITH MORE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS

DEFENSE SPENDING SOARS: Biden cited figures that show NATO defense spending has increased dramatically since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, a spike no doubt driven by the ominous threat posed by President Vladimir Putin’s irredentist ambitions.

“Putin wants nothing less than Ukraine’s total subjugation; to end Ukraine’s democracy; to destroy Ukraine’s culture; and to wipe Ukraine off the map,” Biden said. “And we know Putin won’t stop at Ukraine.”

Biden noted that when he took office in 2021, only nine NATO nations were meeting the 2% of GDP defense spending goal set in 2014. So far, 23 of the 32 members are meeting the standard, which was given a deadline of this year. But collectively, the entire alliance is now spending more than 2% on defense, and Biden said the remaining countries that have not yet reached the milestone “will get there soon.”

“It’s remarkable progress — proof that our commitment is broad and deep, that we’re ready, that we’re willing, and we’re able to deter aggression and defend every inch of NATO territory across every domain: land, air, sea, cyber, and space,” Biden said. “My friends, it’s good that we’re stronger than ever, because this moment in history calls for our collective strength.”

OPINION: THE PROBLEMS WITH THE NATO DEFENSE SPENDING HAPPY TALK

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE

HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to speak at the NATO public forum this morning. According to the Pentagon, he will “highlight the continued strength, unity, and resolve of the NATO alliance to safeguard our collective defense and tackle security challenges together.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken will also speak at the forum this morning. Blinken’s remarks will be live-streamed on the State Department website at 9:05 a.m., and Austin’s remarks will be live-streamed on the Pentagon’s website at 9:50 a.m.

Today, Blinken and Austin will join Biden for discussions with NATO heads of state at the summit. Tonight, Austin is hosting NATO defense ministers for a dinner at Fort McNair in Washington, and Blinken is hosting a similar dinner for NATO and partner foreign ministers in Washington.

HAPPENING TOMORROW: The White House says President Biden will meet one-on-one with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelesnky at the Washington Convention Center, site of the NATO summit.

“This will be the third meeting between both presidents in recent weeks, following their sit-down in France and also a sit-down at the G7 in Italy, and it will further demonstrate the strength of the partnership between our counties,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. “It will take place just before the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting.”

ZELENSKY REACHES OUT TO REPUBLICANS AMID BIDEN’S POLITICAL TROUBLES

ZELENSKY: WORLD CAN’T WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER: In a speech at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation yesterday, Zelensky warned the world must not wait for the U.S. election in November to help Ukraine turn the tide of battle against Russia.

“Let’s be candid and frank. Now everyone is waiting for November,” Zelensky said according to a transcript on his official website. “Americans are waiting for November. And Europe, Middle East, Indo-Pacific – the whole world is looking to November. And truly speaking – Putin awaits November too,” he said. “It’s time to step out of the shadows, to make strong decisions work, to act and not to wait for November or any other month.”

In a separate address to the Ukrainian people, Zelensky said, “We are pushing for more aircraft, F-16s. We are pushing to get them. We are pushing for additional security commitments for Ukraine, which means weapons, finances, and political support. We are pushing for the necessary decisive actions by America and Europe, something that will strengthen our warriors.” 

“I am confident it will happen,” he said. 

US UNVEILS NATO PLAN TO BUY BODY ARMOR FOR UKRAINIAN MILITARY WOMEN

QUESTIONS ABOUT BIDEN’S BEDTIME: In an appearance on Fox News following Biden’s NATO speech, John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, fielded a barrage of questions raised by reports that Biden told a meeting of Democrats he needs more sleep and is no longer scheduling events after 8 p.m.

Fox News anchor Bret Baier raised a Wall Street Journal report that questioned Biden’s stamina and read from a portion of the article recounting an anecdote that allegedly happened at the G7 meeting last month in Germany. 

“German officials, aware of Biden’s fatigue at night, sought to accommodate the president by planning a June 22 event with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz early in the evening. The informal event, a soiree at the Alpine resort during the Group of Seven summit, was arranged as a confidential meeting on Ukraine in a relaxed setting,” Baier read. “Biden didn’t show, surprising the chancellor and his aides, officials said. Instead, Secretary Blinken arrived and announced that Biden had to go to bed,” according to two people there.

“I can’t verify those reports, these anonymous reports,” Kirby said. “I would point to you to what got done at the G7. And one of the things that got done was a press conference with President Zelenskyy at the end of a very, very long day at the very end of that trip, where he signed a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine. I mean, there was an awful lot of work done at the G7, and the president was right in the middle of it.”

“You know, a couple of elections ago, there was the 3:00 a.m. call,” Baier said. “Now there’s real concern about can he handle something that doesn’t happen between 10:00 and 4:00 p.m.”

“He gets calls in the middle of the night all the time,” Kirby replied. “And a couple of G7s ago, Bret, you might remember, there was a missile that fell in Poland. There was a concern that it could have been a Russian missile. That call came in to him in the middle of the night. He called together the G7 in a snap meeting by 8:00 that morning. He gets calls a lot.”

SEVENTH HOUSE DEMOCRAT CALLS ON BIDEN TO WITHDRAW DESPITE CLOSED-DOOR MEETING TO AIR CONCERNS

JAMES INHOFE, 1934-2024: Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), who served nearly 30 years in Congress and chaired the Armed Services Committee after the death of John McCain (R-AZ), died yesterday at the age of 89. Inhofe — who underwent quadruple bypass heart surgery in 2013 — suffered a stroke over the July Fourth holiday, his family said in a statement, according to the Associated Press.

Many of the obituaries for Inhofe mentioned the time he brought a snowball onto the Senate floor to illustrate his skepticism about climate change. Still, his colleagues on both sides of the aisle remembered him for his ability to forge compromise on national security.

“Together, we produced nearly two dozen bipartisan National Defense Authorization Acts, traveled to combat zones and military posts around the world, and worked to support our men and women in uniform. We both had the privilege to serve in the Army, and I know Jim carried out his deep sense of responsibility to our troops in the Senate each day,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-NH), chairman of the Armed Services Committee.

“Jim Inhofe demonstrated that he continued to know how to build consensus and get things done for his fellow Oklahomans, as well as for his fellow Americans,” said Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS). “Jim Inhofe was an accomplished pilot. He flew solo around the world at age 56. As a Member of Congress, he was known as a straight shooter who was not afraid to challenge the conventional wisdom, as he did so on numerous occasions.”“For nearly three decades, the Senator for Oklahoma lived up to his unique and distinguished middle name: Jim was a Mountain of a man,” saidSen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY). “His laser focus on growing and modernizing the U.S. military strengthened the security of the entire free world.”

JAMES INHOFE DEAD: FORMER LONGTIME GOP OKLAHOMA SENATOR DIES AT 89

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Biden announces NATO effort to supply Ukraine with more air defense systems

Washington Examiner: NATO eyeing spending above 2% on defense

Washington Examiner: Putin still believes he can outlast Ukraine and NATO

Washington Examiner: NATO summit: Baltic defense minister takes veiled shot at Canada

Washington Examiner: NATO needs to beef up China contingency plans, top Republican says

Washington Examiner: NATO summit’s top issues: Defense spending, Ukraine — and Biden

Washington Examiner: Zelensky reaches out to Republicans amid Biden’s political troubles

Washington Examiner: US urges defense companies to back democracy

Washington Examiner: US unveils NATO plan to buy body armor for Ukrainian military women

Washington Examiner: Biden issues surprise medal at NATO and turns up pageantry with presidency on the line

Washington Examiner: Opinion: The problems with the NATO defense spending happy talk

Washington Examiner: House Democrats emerge from closed-door meeting divided on Biden’s fate

Washington Examiner: Seventh House Democrat calls on Biden to withdraw despite closed-door meeting to air concerns

Washington Examiner: House Democratic leaders declare Biden nominee but leave door open for replacement

Washington Examiner: James Inhofe dead: Former longtime GOP Oklahoma senator dies at 89

Washington Examiner: Mexican cartels using drones to carry out explosive attacks: Former Border Patrol official

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden rallies support for Ukraine and rightly honors NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg

Washington Examiner: Opinion:  Europe’s brutal military history underlines America’s NATO exceptionalism

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Rishi Sunak offers Biden and Trump an example of political civility

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Biden commits to a Praetorian presidency

New York Times: Ukraine’s Strength Is Growing, Foiling Russia’s Advances

AP: Yemen’s Houthi Rebels Target A U.S.-Flagged Container Ship In The Gulf Of Aden

The War Zone: Greek Warship Guns-Down Houthi Drone In New Video

AP: Israeli strikes in central Gaza kill 20 Palestinians as mediators make new push on cease-fire deal

AP: In a diplomatic quirk, Russia chairs a UN meeting decrying its strike on a Ukraine kids’ hospital

Air & Space Forces Magazine: NATO Announces More Air Defense for Ukraine, Update on F-16s Coming at Summit

Task & Purpose: Here Are The Ships The U.S. Plans To Sink In The Pacific This Summer

Breaking Defense: Space Now a Priority for NATO Leaders, Euro Leaders Scramble to Meet Threats

DefenseScoop: Hicks Urges NATO to Grow Industrial Capacity, Adopt Replicator-Like Systems

Air Force Times: Air Force, Space Force Join Army for Bring-Your-Own-Device Enrollment

AP: US-Built Pier Will Be Put Back in Gaza for Several Days to Move Aid, Then Permanently Removed

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Senators Want to Add New F-15EXs, Missiles, Spare Parts to Air Force Budget

Stars and Stripes: USFJ Commander Calls Out ‘Aggressive Regional Actors’ at Air Base Command Change in Tokyo

Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Mission Deltas Better Integrate Space, Cyber, and ISR, SpOC Boss Says

Defense One: US, Allies Take Down Kremlin-Backed AI Bot Farm

The War Zone: AT-802U Trainers Arrive to Prepare USAF Aviators for a Murky Light Attack Future

Military.com: Commander of New Hampshire Air National Guard Killed in Hit-and-Run Incident Near His Home

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Why NATO Would Be Stronger With Ukraine As a Member

The Cipher Brief: Opinion: NATO Must Stop Putin – and Stop Worrying About Trump

The Cipher Brief: Former NATO Secretary General: For Europeans, “Holiday from History Is Over”

The Cipher Brief: Analysis: Pezeshkian Celebrates a Win in Iran but What Can He Really Do?

WEDNESDAY | JULY 10

8 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl. NW — The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Washington Summit through July 11, marking the 75th anniversary, 32-member alliance Full schedule at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, Center for a New American Security, German Marshall Fund, U.S., GLOBSEC, and Hudson Institute 2024 NATO Public Forum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTPSdOnAxvs

1 p.m. 2044 Rayburn — Defense Forum Foundation discussion with North Korean escapees on “The Road to Peaceful Unification is the End, Kim Regime: Let Us Show the Way” RSVP: johnnypark@defenseforumfoundation.org

2 p.m. — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing: “Putin’s Syrian Puppet: War Crimes and Complicity from Syria to Ukraine,” with film director and producer M. Night Shyamalan, co-founder and president, M. Night Shyamalan Foundation; Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, Syrian civil society leader and human rights activist; and Mouaz Moustafa, executive director, Syrian Emergency Task Force https://www.youtube.com/live/DR3HLmoMMiY

4 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “China-Taiwan Competition: Why It Matters for Peace and Stability in the Pacific,” with Graeme Smith, senior fellow at Australian National University’s Department of Pacific Affairs; and Gordon Peake, USIP senior adviser on Pacific islands https://www.usip.org/events/china-taiwan-competition

8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy virtual discussion: n “Legal Aspects, War Against Israel,” with Steve Zipperstein, associate director, University of California, Los Angeles’ Center for Middle East Development and professor, UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs and in the UCLA Global Studies Interdepartmental Program; and Madeleine Brand, host of Press Play https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/event

THURSDAY | JULY 11

8 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl. NW — The North Atlantic Treaty Organization Washington Summit final day. Full schedule at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/events

9 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on pending nominations http://www.armed-services.senate.gov

9 a.m. — Atlantic Council, Center for a New American Security, German Marshall Fund, U.S., GLOBSEC, and Hudson Institute 2024 NATO Public Forum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJDInbKh9U4

9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies “South China Sea Conference,” with Kathryn Paik, CSIS senior fellow; Charles Edel, CSIS Australia chair; Andreyka Natalegawa, CSIS associate fellow; Harrison Pretat, deputy director, CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative; and Gregory Poling, director, CSIS Asia Program https://www.csis.org/events/fourteenth-annual-south-china-sea-conference

9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “What Happened, NATO Summit?” with former Assistant Defense Secretary for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs Mark Lippert, CSIS Korea chair; Sue Mi Terry, senior fellow for Korea studies, Council on Foreign Relations; Max Bergmann, director, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Victor Cha, CSIS senior vice president for Asia https://www.csis.org/events/what-happened-nato-summit

10 a.m. — Arab Center virtual discussion: “The Looming Israel-Hezbollah War: Prospects, Deterrence, and Impacts,” with Joseph Bahout, director, American University of Beirut’s Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs; Rola El-Husseini, associate professor of political science at Lund University; Paul Salem, Middle East Institute vice president for international engagement; Imad Harb, Arab Center director of research and analysis; and Patricia Karam, Arab Center nonresident fellow https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

12 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Air and Missile Defense in the High North,” with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK); retired Army Gen. Charles Jacoby, chair, U.S. Military Academy at West Point’s Modern War Institute and former commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and U.S. Northern Command; and Tom Karako, senior fellow, CSIS International Security Program and director, CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/air-and-missile-defense-high-north

2:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “NATO, Trump and the Latest in Ukraine,” with former White House national security adviser John Bolton https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live

7 p.m. 101 Independence Ave. SE — Library of Congress hosts the 75th Anniversary NATO Symphony Orchestra Concert with musician Peter Frampton 

FRIDAY | JULY 12

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Israel’s Missile Defense Engagements Since October 7th,” with Moshe Patel, director, Israel Missile Defense Organization; and Tom Karako, senior fellow, CSIS International Security Program and director, CSIS Missile Defense Project https://www.csis.org/events/israels-missile-defense-engagements-october-7th

9:30 a.m. 1789 Massachusetts Ave. NW — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion: “Europe’s Security After the Washington Summit,” with Polish Foreign Affairs Minister Radoslaw Sikorski; Kori Schake, AEI director of foreign and defense policy studies; and Dalibor Rohac, AEI senior fellow https://www.aei.org/events/europes-security-after-the-washington-summit

10:45 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Bolstering Transatlantic Security and Solidarity,” with Jan Jires, director general of defense policy and planning, Czech Ministry of Defense; Lt. Gen. Karel Rehka, chief, General Staff, Czech Armed Forces; J.R. McDonald, vice president for business development at Lockheed Martin; Valbona Zeneli, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council Europe Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/bolstering-transatlantic-security

11 a.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “Beyond the Summit: Outcomes and the Path Forward to Ukraine’s NATO Membership,” with Paul Good, president, Ukrainian World Congress; Nico Lange, senior fellow, Munich Security Conference; Michal Szczerba, member, European Parliament (via video); former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, fellow, Center for European Policy Analysis; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director, Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Shelby Magid, deputy director, Atlantic Council Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/beyond-the-summit-outcomes

12:15 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “Next Steps for Transatlantic Cooperation Post-NATO Summit,” with Czech Republic President Petr Pavel; Jan Jires, director general of defense policy and planning, Czech Defense Ministry; Karel Rehka, chief, general staff, Czech Armed Forces; former Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs and former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried, fellow, Atlantic Council; and Valbona Zeneli, nonresident senior fellow, Atlantic Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/czech-president

Former President Donald Trump has a secret plan to bring the war in Ukraine to a quick conclusion. Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee-in-waiting, says he plans to implement it even before he takes office, after beating President Joe Biden in their looming rematch.

“I will have that war settled between Putin and Zelensky as president-elect before I take office on Jan. 20,” the once and very likely future president said at last month’s debate with Biden. “People being killed so needlessly, so stupidly, and I will get it settled and I’ll get it settled fast before I take office.”

Trump has kept the specifics of his peace proposal close to the vest, but he’s suggested that, like his promise to secure the freedom of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, it is based on his personal relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I will have him [Gershkovich] out very quickly, as soon as I take office, before I take office … literally as soon as I win the election,” Trump promised at the debate.

Trump’s been cagey about exactly how as president he would force both sides to the negotiating table, but he’s openly suggested he would cut off U.S. aid to Ukraine if President Volodymyr Zelensky refused to make concessions to Putin.

When asked directly, Trump has avoided endorsing Zelensky’s vision of victory, which would require Russia to withdraw from all occupied territory, including the Crimean Peninsula, and Ukraine joining NATO.

“I don’t think in terms of winning and losing. I think in terms of getting it settled so we stop killing all these people,” Trump said at a CNN town hall event last May. “I want everybody to stop dying. They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying.”

Trump’s idea is to pressure Zelensky to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia,” according to insiders who spoke to the Washington Post in early April. 

“Privately, Trump has said that he thinks both Russia and Ukraine ‘want to save face, they want a way out,’ and that people in parts of Ukraine would be okay with being part of Russia,” the newspaper reported.

Coincidentally, just a few days later, the America First Policy Institute, a think tank led by two Trump advisers, published a little-noticed research report fleshing out the kind of approach they’d like to see Biden or Trump take.

“This should start with a formal U.S. policy to bring the war to a conclusion. Specifically, it would mean a formal U.S. policy to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict,” said the white paper, authored by retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, a former Trump national security adviser, and Fred Fleitz, who served as chief of staff in Trump’s National Security Council.

“The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement but would also condition future American military aid on Ukraine’s participation in peace talks with Russia,” the document added. 

To convince Putin to join peace talks, the U.S. and other NATO nations would “offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees.”

Kellogg spelled out the carrots and sticks in blunter terms in an interview with Reuters. 

“We tell the Ukrainians, ‘You’ve got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, support from the United States will dry up,’” Kellogg said. “And you tell Putin, ‘He’s got to come to the table, and if you don’t come to the table, then we’ll give Ukrainians everything they need to kill you in the field.’”

Putin shouldn’t need much convincing, given his forces are taking horrific losses on the battlefield and that with the proposed conditions, he would be in a strong position to force Ukraine to surrender the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow, one of his stated preconditions for a peace agreement. 

“The Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics and Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions,” Putin said, during a meeting with his Foreign Affairs Ministry officials at the Kremlin on June 14.

“As soon as Kyiv declares that it is ready to make this decision and begin a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially notifies that it abandons its plans to join NATO, our side will follow an order to cease fire and start negotiations will be issued by us that very moment,” Putin said.

Zelensky who’s pushing his own peace plan, promptly rejected Putin’s conditions, comparing them to Adolf Hitler’s demands for capitulation during World War II.

“These messages are messages of ultimatum,” Zelensky said. “It’s the same thing Hitler did.” 

While Zelensky said Ukraine will work with whoever is the U.S. president next year, he’s worried that defeatism is taking hold of the MAGA wing of the Republican Party.

“Ukraine’s not winning that war,” Trump argued at the June debate. “They’re running out of people, they’re running out of soldiers, they’ve lost so many people. It’s so sad.”

Trump’s desire to wrap up the war quickly is putting tremendous pressure on Zelensky, who fears under Trump the U.S. would be happy to write off large portions of Ukraine to appease Putin.

“It is impossible to help Ukraine with one hand and shake Putin’s hand with the other,” Zelensky told the Philadelphia Inquirer in a June 24 interview in Kyiv. “It will not work.” 

“Everybody is still afraid that Russia can split apart, everybody is afraid of what will happen to Russia without Putin and whether it will stay as it is or get worse,” Zelensky said, arguing that U.S. half-measures, such as restricting Ukraine’s ability to use long-range ATACMS rockets to hit deep into Russian territory, are giving Putin a free hand to improve his negotiating position. 

“Any step forward on our territory, any occupation, any village even fully destroyed is positive for them because it is important for them to bargain as much as possible,” he said. 

Like many in his base, Trump believes the U.S. is pouring good money after bad to prop up Ukraine in a war it’s destined to lose and that Zelensky is soaking the U.S. and its allies in his quixotic pursuit of glory.

“Every time that Zelensky comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion. He’s the greatest salesman ever,” Trump has said on several occasions.

It’s an argument that resonates with his base and is echoed by his most vocal supporters, including Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), who at this writing is still in contention to be Trump’s running mate.

“People who want us to put limitless resources into Ukraine, they want us to believe two things at once,” Vance said on Fox News Sunday in April. “On the one hand, they want us to believe the Ukrainians are on the verge of victory in the far eastern part of Ukraine. On the other hand, they want us to believe that Vladimir Putin is about to march all the way to Paris. You can’t believe both of those things at the same time.”

“It’s not that we don’t admire the courageousness of the Ukrainians — we certainly do. It’s that America is stretched too thin. We do not have the industrial capacity to support a war in Ukraine, a war in Israel, potentially a war in East Asia if the Chinese invade Taiwan,” he said, repeating an argument he first made at the Munich Security Conference in February. “So America has to pick and choose.”

Trump may see himself as master of the “Art of the Deal,” but outgoing Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, who has been tapped to be the European Union’s top diplomat, has a warning for Trump about Russian negotiating tactics that she said date back to the days of Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko.

“Three things. First, demand the maximum. Do not ask, but demand something that has never been yours. Second, present ultimatums, threaten. And third, do not give one inch in negotiations,” Kallas said in an interview. “Because there will be always people in the West who will offer you something, and then in the end, you will have one-third or even one-half of something you didn’t have before.”

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker argues for an alternative strategy to counter Putin’s strategy of grinding away at a war of attrition until the West folds — find a way to make Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership a fait accompli.

“If we tell Vladimir Putin that Ukraine cannot join NATO until after the war, then that’s a message to Putin to continue the war,” Volker said in an interview with Euromaidan Press.

“NATO can make a commitment to Ukraine but also a public statement that would be read by Russia that we would help defend Ukrainian territory that Ukraine controls,” Volker said. “So, no more Russian seizure of territory, but we would not engage to retake territory militarily alongside Ukrainian forces. That’s a matter for Ukraine itself.”

Trump argues if anyone should be doing more to help Ukraine, it should be European countries, not the U.S., because “it has a bigger impact on them, because of location, because we have an ocean in between.”

It’s an argument that has echoes of America’s isolationist sentiment before its entry into World War II. 

“Some of our people like to believe that wars in Europe and in Asia are of no concern to us,” President Franklin D. Roosevelt said in a December 1940 fireside chat. “But the width of those oceans is not what it was in the days of clipper ships.”

“They tell you that the Axis powers are going to win anyway, that all of this bloodshed in the world could be saved, that the United States might just as well throw its influence into the scale of a dictated peace and get the best out of it that we can,” Roosevelt said.

“They call it a ‘negotiated peace.’ Nonsense! … Such a dictated peace would be no peace at all. It would be only another armistice.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Ukraine already learned a hard lesson about the value of Russian security guarantees when, in 1994, it gave its nuclear weapons back to Russia in return for a guarantee from Moscow that its territorial sovereignty would never be violated.

“A ceasefire is the best option for the Russians so they can prepare for taking even more,” Zelensky says. 

ZELENSKY SEEKS LONGER LEASH: Frustrated as Russia uses retrofitted “dumb bombs” converted to standoff “glide bombs” to reduce Ukrainian cities to rubble, President Volodymyr Zelensky is again appealing to the Biden administration for wider authority to target the planes that launch the weapons from the safety of territory within range, but off limits, to U.S. weapons.

“The sooner the world helps us deal with the Russian combat aircraft launching these bombs, the sooner we can strike, justifiably strike, at Russian military infrastructure, military airfields, the closer we will be to peace. Real peace,” Zelensky said in his nightly video address Sunday. 

At the same time, he said the Russian glide bombs were taking a terrible toll on the civilian population. Zelensky noted in the areas where Ukraine has been given a free hand to strike back across the border, attacks against Russian forces have been effective. “Strikes on the Russian border areas helped protect lives,” he said. “And in particular, defending the Kharkiv region from the Russian offensive, we have proven that the determination of our partners truly helps.”

“The world has enough power to force Russia into peace,” he said. “Bold decisions that must be made, that we need, and that we are discussing with our partners. In the coming weeks, we will continue our communication to achieve the necessary decisions.”

RUSSIAN PLANES SITTING DUCKS? The urgency of Zelensky’s latest plea for the U.S. to remove restrictions on the use of long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, ATACMS, was underscored by a report by David Axe in Forbes, which suggested dozens of Russian planes that deliver the glide bombs are routinely parked in the open at the Voronezh Malshevo air base, just 100 miles from the border with Ukraine.

“From the base, Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers belonging to the Russian air force’s 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment fly daily sorties lobbing powerful glide bombs at Ukrainian troops and civilians from 25 miles away or farther,” Axe wrote. “The regiment’s dozens of Sukhoi Su-34s — possibly representing around half of Russia’s active fleet of the supersonic, twin-engine fighter-bombers,” he said, are well “within range of Ukraine’s best deep strike weapon,” but the Su-34s are able to launch glide bombs “with near impunity” because of the refusal of the Biden administration to approve the strikes by ATACMS rockets deeper into Russian territory.

“Ukraine could potentially incapacitate the entire operational fleet stationed there if permitted to conduct such a strike,” the report said, quoting an assessment by the Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight.

ISW: PUTIN’S POSITION IS HARDENING: Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “theory of victory” is being incentivized by the incrementalism of the West, according to the latest assessment by the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. 

“The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin’s theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners,” the ISW advocated, noting that Putin is convinced “Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely,” a belief that has “hardened” Putin’s resolve of “destroying Ukrainian statehood.”

In an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer published Sunday, Zelensky complained that the Western view of victory does not completely align with Ukraine’s.

“The West wanted to deny Putin the opportunity to fully occupy Ukraine and to put the aggressor in his place. I think for them it is the victory already,” Zelensky told Philadelphia Inquirer Worldview columnist Trudy Rubin in a June 24 interview in Kyiv. “We are grateful that the West did not let Russia occupy us [fully], but we need justice.”

“Everybody is still afraid that Russia can split apart, everybody is afraid of what will happen to Russia without Putin and whether it will stay as it is or get worse,” Zelensky said, which is simply strengthening his position in any peace deal. “Any step forward on our territory, any occupation, any village even fully destroyed is positive for them because it is important for them to bargain as much as possible.

“Bit by bit, they are washing away Ukrainian independence. They take territory, then legislate [to annex it] or invent economic or security unions with Moscow, and then they dissolve the country in this mud, in this Russian mud,” Zelensky said. “A ceasefire is the best option for the Russians so they can prepare for taking even more.

“We should be in the European Union for economic security. And we should be in NATO for physical security. If we don’t have these two, there is a huge risk for us that the enemy will come back,” he said. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre

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NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish on Thursday, July 4, or Friday, July 5, as we celebrate an extended Independence Day weekend. We’ll be back in your inbox and online Monday, July 8. 

HAPPENING TODAY: The Supreme Court’s long-awaited immunity decision is expected to be among the high court’s last opinions to be released this morning beginning at 10 a.m. The case centers on whether former President Donald Trump is entitled to claim immunity from prosecution for at least some of his actions in seeking to overturn the 2020 election. A three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled unanimously in February that he cannot.

“Former President Trump argues that criminal liability for former Presidents risks chilling Presidential action while in office and opening the floodgates to meritless and harassing prosecution. These risks do not overcome ‘the public interest in fair and accurate judicial proceedings,’” the court wrote in its February decision.

“We cannot accept former President Trump’s claim that a President has unbounded authority to commit crimes that would neutralize the most fundamental check on executive power — the recognition and implementation of election results. Nor can we sanction his apparent contention that the Executive has carte blanche to violate the rights of individual citizens to vote and to have their votes count,” the appeals court decision said. “At bottom, former President Trump’s stance would collapse our system of separated powers by placing the President beyond the reach of all three Branches. … We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its former occupants above the law for all time thereafter.”

HIGH-STAKES SUPREME COURT RULING ON TRUMP IMMUNITY DUE MONDAY

WILL THE COURT SETTLE THE QUESTION OR SEND IT BACK? A big question is whether the court will uphold the lower court’s definitive ruling or decide there are some cases where immunity is warranted and others where it is not and send the case for to the appeals court to reconsider.

“The expectation many of us had was that the court was clearly uncomfortable with the extreme views of either the Trump team or the lower court because the Trump team was saying he is sweeping virtually absolute immunity and then the lower courts gave very little protection for presidents going forward,” said Jonathan Turley, professor of public interest law at George Washington University, on Fox News on Sunday. 

“The expectation is they may come up with a nuanced view and send this back,” said Turley, who is also a regular Fox News contributor. The appeals court would then have to parse which Trump acts surrounding the events of Jan. 6 were official and which were not. “That will take time, and the clock is ticking,” Turley said. “And many of us doubt that the court can do that and still have a trial before the election.”

“I see zero chance they’re going to embrace Donald Trump’s argument that he has absolute immunity and can’t be prosecuted. I think they’re going to say that there is some immunity for the official actions of a president,” said Jan Crawford, CBS News’s chief legal affairs correspondent, on Face the Nation Sunday. “I think they’re going to wall off those kind of official actions of a president but leave open the possibility of prosecution for unofficial actions of an office-seeker.”

“Trump’s lawyer argued at the oral arguments, conceded at the oral arguments, a lot of what’s alleged in the indictment is unofficial acts,” Crawford said. “So [special counsel] Jack Smith could have those papers ready to go and say, ‘He’s conceded this is unofficial acts that he can be prosecuted for.’”

Trump faces a four-count indictment for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, but even if the court were to uphold the lower court decision fully, it’s unlikely a trial could start before September.

“The fundamental principle here is, the president’s got to be able to do his job. In the same way that police officers, judges, prosecutors enjoy some immunity, that principle has to apply to the president, too,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) said on CBS. “The president has to have immunity to do his job. Should Barack Obama be prosecuted for droning American citizens in Yemen? There are so many examples of presidents, Democrats and Republicans, who would not be able to discharge their duties if the Supreme Court does not recognize some broad element of presidential discretion.”

Vance, who is also in the running to be Trump’s vice president, was asked by Face the Nation host Margaret Brennan whether he believes Trump would have the power to pardon himself if he takes office again.

“I believe that the president has broad pardon authority, Margaret, but more importantly, I think the president has immunity. It’s not about whether he should pardon himself,” Vance said. “It’s about whether he should be prosecuted in the first place for discharging his official duties.”

JD VANCE ARGUES US PRESIDENTS NEED IMMUNITY ‘TO DO THEIR JOB’

THE RUNDOWN: 

Washington Examiner: Target Iran to stop Houthi attacks, former senior defense leaders argue

Washington Examiner: US troops to remove Gaza pier for weather concerns yet again

Washington Examiner: ‘Happy with my wife, but need my brothers’: Ukrainian men caught between Russia and a war of attrition

Washington Examiner: Pentagon attempts to dodge Biden claim of no troops deaths during tenure

Washington Examiner: ‘It was crushing’: Diplomats around the world left dismayed by presidential debate

Washington Examiner: What international media are saying about the Biden-Trump debate

Washington Examiner: Four editorial boards call for Biden to step down from nomination following debate

Washington Examiner: Raskin admits ‘conversations are being had’ about Biden’s 2024 candidacy

Washington Examiner: Day after debate: Biden and Trump border claims called into question

Washington Examiner: US to naturalize 11,000 new citizens over July Fourth holiday

Washington Examiner: JD Vance argues US presidents need immunity ‘to do their job’

Washington Examiner: Opinion: Will Russia seek to exploit American fears over Biden’s frailty?

Washington Examiner: How delicate talks led to unlikely end of Assange’s 12-year saga

AP: Russia Warns It Can Take Unspecified Measures in Response to US Drone Flights over Black Sea

New York Times: Putin Vows to Make New Nuclear Missiles and to Weigh Placing Them Near NATO Nations

Washington Post: Russia’s devastating glide bombs keep falling on its own territory

Wall Street Journal: A Summer Of Slog Is Expected In Ukraine

AP: Ukraine’s convicts offered release at a high price: Joining the fight against Russia

The Hill: U.S. Struggles To Deter Houthi Threat As Crisis Spirals

CBS: USS Carney Returns From A Middle East Deployment Unlike Any Other

Stars and Stripes: CENTCOM Reports 3 Houthi Unmanned Boats Destroyed

New York Times: Navy SEALs Lost To Suicide Share A Pattern Of Brain Damage

Military.com: House Approves $2.5 Billion for Junior Enlisted Raises, Which May Be $800 Million Too Little

AP: French voters propel far-right National Rally to strong lead in first-round legislative elections

Washington Post: Iran heads to presidential runoff pitting reformist against conservative

AP: Ultra-Orthodox protest against order to enlist in Israeli military turns violent in Jerusalem

NBC News: Malmstrom Air Force Base Accident Claims an Airman’s Life, Leaves Five Injured

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Vet Indicted for Leaking Secrets on Weapons ‘Vulnerabilities’

AP: North Koreans are seen wearing Kim Jong Un pins for the first time as his personality cult grows

Defense One: Supercomputer Cloud Services Greenlit by Pentagon’s Innovation Office

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force General Sentenced In Historic Court-Martial

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force General Cleared of Sexual Assault, Guilty of Other Charges

Defense Scoop: DOD’s Network Defense Arm Is Working to Protect Logistics for Transportation Command

C4ISRNET: US Central Command to Demo Integrated Counter Drone Sensors This Fall

SpaceNews: Military Space Trackers to Keep Public Informed on Starlink Satellite Reentries

Washington Post: Astronauts’ return from space delayed indefinitely, reflecting high stakes for Boeing and NASA

AP: US wants Boeing to plead guilty to fraud over fatal crashes, lawyers say

Air & Space Forces Magazine: A Chunk Taken Out of His Spine’: F-16, KC-46 in Refueling Incident over Europe

Military.com: Navajo Corporal Becomes First Marine Authorized To Wear Traditional Native Hair

THE CALENDAR: 

MONDAY | JULY 1

10:30 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “The Biden administration’s foreign policy and the role for U.S. leadership in navigating this critical moment,” with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Suzanne Maloney, director of foreign policy, Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/americas-foreign-policy

2 p.m. —  McCain Institute virtual book discussion: Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine, with author and retired Army Gen. David Petraeus, former CIA director https://www.mccaininstitute.org/resources/events

4 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW — Atlantic Council releases report: “Executing Distributed Operations in a Contested Maritime Environment,” with Dmitry Filipoff, associate research analyst, Center for Naval Analyses Operational Warfighting Division; Barbara Anderson, director of strategy and performance management at Herren Associates; retired Rear Adm. Tony Lengerich, vice president of naval programs at Thales Defense and Security; and Steven Grundman, senior fellow, Atlantic Council Forward Defense Program https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/executing-distributed-operations

TUESDAY | JULY 2

8 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Hot Topic” discussion: “Cyber and Information Advantage,” with James Rubin, special envoy and coordinator for the U.S. State Department’s Global Engagement Center; Young Bang, principal deputy assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics and technology; Maj. Gen. Paul Stanton, commander, U.S. Army Cyber Center of Excellence; and Peter Singer, strategist with New America and founder and managing partner of Useful Fiction https://www.ausa.org/events/hot-topics

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution in-person and virtual discussion: “Force Design: A conversation with Gen. Eric Smith, 39th commandant, US Marine Corps,” and Michael O’Hanlon, senior fellow and director, Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings https://www.brookings.edu/events/force-design

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Aerospace Nation” webinar: “Want Better Results in Ukraine? Senior Leader Views,” with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean, Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies; co-author Christopher Bowie; retired Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, former supreme NATO commander; and retired Air Force Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, former commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa https://go.afa.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE —  Heritage Foundation B.C. Lee Lecture on “the importance of Taiwan and what can be done to counter the threat of the People’s Republic of China,” with Matt Pottinger, former deputy national security adviser and chairman, Foundation for Defense of Democracies China Program https://www.heritage.org/asia/event/the-2024-bc-lee-lecture

WEDNESDAY | JULY 3

10 a.m. —  Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “NATO at 75: Old or Bold?” with Constanze Stelzenmuller, director, Brookings Center on the U.S. and Europe; Tara Varma, visiting fellow, Brookings Center on the U.S. and Europe; James Goldgeier, visiting fellow, Brookings Center on the U.S. and Europe; Asli Aydintasbas, visiting fellow, Brookings Center on the U.S. and Europe; and Michael O’Hanlon, Brookings chairman in defense and strategy https://www.brookings.edu/events/nato-at-75-old-or-bold/

7 p.m. 5015 Connecticut Ave. NW — Politics and Prose book discussion: Mr. Churchill in the White House: The Untold Story of a Prime Minister and Two Presidents, with author Robert Schmuhl, chair emeritus in American studies and journalism, University of Notre Dame, and Robert Costa, CBS News chief election and campaign correspondent https://www.politics-prose.com/robert-schmul

THURSDAY | JULY 4 | INDEPENDENCE DAY

Federal holiday, government offices closed, no Daily on Defense

9 a.m. 700 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — National Archives celebration of the 248th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence, with the presentation of colors by the Continental Color Guard, singing of the national anthem, performance by the 3rd U.S. Infantry Regiment, the Old Guard, and Fife and Drum Corps, a reading of the Declaration of Independence by historical reenactors. https://www.archivesjuly4.org/schedule/day-of-celebration

11:45 a.m. Constitution Ave., between 7th St. and 17th St. NW — National Park Service National Independence Day Parade, featuring a fife and drum corps, marching bands, floats, military units, giant balloons, and equestrian and drill teams. https://july4thparade.com/

8 p.m. West Lawn, U.S. Capitol — National Park Service, the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the Department of the Army, the Boeing Company, American Airlines, and PBS host the traditional annual event: “A Capitol Fourth Concert,” with actor Alfonso Ribeiro; singer/songwriter Smokey Robinson; singer/actress Fantasia; singer/songwriter Darren Criss; singer/drummer Sheila E.; singers Michael Fitzpatrick and Noelle Scaggs of Fitz and the Tantrums; composer/pianist Chloe Flower; Sister Sledge, featuring Sledgendary; singer Loren Allred; artistic gymnast Shawn Johnson East; Jack Everly; principal pops conductor of the Indianapolis Symphony Orchestra; and the National Symphony Orchestra http://www.pbs.org/a-capitol-fourth/home

FRIDAY | JULY 5

7 a.m.  Brussels, Belgium — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg press conference, NATO Headquarters to preview the NATO summit in Washington https://www.nato.int

TUESDAY | JULY 9

8 a.m. Walter E. Washington Convention Center — NATO summit scheduled for July 9-11, marking the 75th anniversary of the 32-member alliance https://www.nato.int