As American foreign policy pivots toward the Indo-Pacific, a shift that would rightly accelerate should former President Donald Trump win in November, questions loom regarding how the United States might encourage its European partners to bolster their national and collective security. Such measures are critical not only for Europe’s own sake, but also for the broader goal of countering and prevailing against the revisionist authoritarian axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea that now menaces the free world.

Despite some increases in defense spending — Germany and Norway, for instance, will commit 2% of their gross domestic products to defense for the first time this year — there is little evidence of improved military capabilities or increased troop numbers. This, even as Europe grapples with its largest ground conflict since World War II and an expanding Chinese military presence. Last week, for example, Chinese and Belarusian forces conducted an 11-day joint exercise, “Eagle Assault 2024,” in Belarus, less than three miles from the Polish border. 

Still, many Europeans appear more anxious about the prospect of a Vice President J.D. Vance than their own security vulnerabilities.

Certainly, this curious reluctance to take charge of their security is not shared across all of Europe. Poland is poised to allocate 5% of its GDP to defense next year, the highest among NATO nations. Estonia could see similar outlays, with upgrades to its defense systems and manpower. 

Yet these are exceptions rather than the norm. Norway, despite its increased military expenditures, foresees improved defense systems and expanded conscript and reservist programs only by 2036. Its government is forced to balance defense spending with social welfare programs, which consume some 63% of the national budget.

Germany, Europe’s economic and military linchpin, plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year, reducing it to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion), according to its preliminary 2025 budget. The German defense ministry will also receive 1.2 billion euros, “significantly less” than requested. While Germany’s historic aversion to high defense spending is understandable, history can no longer justify inadequate spending today, when the threats to Germany, Europe, and the free world grow daily.  

The British historian A.J.P. Taylor once wrote about the year 1848 that “German history reached its turning point but missed its turn.” Should it continue on its current path, Europe risks a similar fate. 

Short of warning of its diminishing European force posture or threatening to withhold security guarantees from NATO members that spend less than 2% of GDP on defense, as suggested by retired Army Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Washington, D.C., can only do so much. It is, in any case, not its job to convince Europe to prioritize its own security. Such resolve must come from the Europeans themselves.

Such resolve would necessitate a reallocation of national budgets to focus on defense investments, whether through tax increases, spending cuts, or lending. 

For Europe, the choice between guns and butter is, regrettably, very real. It would involve the pursuit of policies to address troop shortages. Latvia, for instance, reinstated mandatory conscription last year, while Lithuania extended its conscription period just last month. 

A Europe committed to its security would also adopt unified defense strategies, starting with a clear and credible endgame for the war in Ukraine. Its leaders would also do well to improve their communications on the necessity of prioritizing such measures to their people, many of whom have yet to grasp the urgency.

Should Europe advance in this manner, it could eventually assume a more prominent role within NATO’s regional commands. There is, for instance, no reason why the command in Naples, Italy, should not be led by Italian or Spanish admirals rather than the American four-star general in charge. Such a move would enable Europe to assume greater control over its security while allowing the U.S. to concentrate on threats in the Indo-Pacific. Yet should Europe stay its course, it and the free world could face a much different reality.

If Europe continues to dither on defense and hold to fanciful notions of perpetual U.S. security protections, it risks not only an expanded Russian and Chinese presence on the continent but an endangered trans-Atlantic alliance. Should Europe cease to be regarded as a credible security partner, Washington could, indeed, opt to let it “do whatever the hell they want,” as Trump put it. Washington could also turn to smaller, more committed coalitions, which could deepen European fragmentation. 

Neither outcome is desirable, and the path forward rests with Europe. There are those who understand this and grasp the gravity of the continent’s security risks and the stakes involved. These are the voices that should be amplified. Where fitting, they should be elected to office. Needed in Europe is leadership — for it, and the free world, cannot afford that it misses its turn.

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Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu (@awgadzala) is the founder of the geopolitical risk firm Magpie Advisory, a visiting fellow at Independent Women’s Forum, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a contributing editor with the New York Sun.

In an effort to save himself, French President Emmanuel Macron appears to have sacrificed France. What was intended to be an election offering “clarification” for French voters has instead cast the nation into political turmoil reminiscent of the postwar Fourth Republic. France now finds itself ungovernable, with a far-left coalition resolute on “applying nothing but its program,” as Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the New Popular Front’s largest party, said.

That program includes a reduced retirement age, reinstatement of the wealth tax, housing benefits, raises in public sector wages, and, on the foreign policy front, swift recognition of the “state” of Palestine. Should it have its way, too, the New Popular Front, a coalition of socialists, greens, and Mélenchon’s far-left Marxist France Unbowed party, will push France further along the path of cultural transformation on which the nation teeters.

Today, foreigners make up about 10% of the French population. Half a century ago, most hailed from southern Europe, but the majority now arrive from North and sub-Saharan Africa. Ten percent of France’s population is Muslim, making Islam the second-most popular religion in the country, behind the 25% who identify as Catholic. If current trends persist, Muslims could comprise 17% of French society by 2050.

In France, “Islamists have won the battle of ideas,” Hakim El Karoui, an informal adviser to Macron, said in 2018. Though the conclusion is far from foregone, El Karoui’s claim could yet be a sign of things to come. At France Unbowed headquarters, more Palestinian than French flags were flown to celebrate its win. The party especially courted France’s migrant population. It made the Palestinian cause central to its campaign.

Mélenchon and France Unbowed have declined to condemn the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in Israel. Borrowing Hamas’s language, the party’s statement on the attack called it “an armed offensive by Palestinian forces.” Mélenchon has refused to label Hamas a terrorist group. He has, however, described French Jews as “an arrogant minority that lectures to the rest.” France’s Muslims appear to agree, with more than half claiming to “hate” Jews.

In some Christian churches across France, the Muslim call to prayer is now sung. Dalil Boubakeur, the mufti of Paris’s Grand Mosque, has suggested that abandoned churches be turned into mosques to accommodate France’s growing Muslim community. Given Mélenchon’s view of religion as “the opium of the people,” it is likely he would not object.

The rise of France’s far Left has exacerbated the nation’s brewing civilizational challenge.

Such an assertion is undoubtedly controversial, especially in this era of woke, diversity, equity, and inclusion politics that aim to upend the status quo and deconstruct Western civilization from within. Yet if we are to contend with the challenges before us, we must be able to identify them clearly — and the arrival in France and across Europe of those who disdain Western civilization and are intent on upending it is one. Most French seem to realize this.

Sadly, foreigners in France are behind much of the rapes, street crimes, and thefts that now plague the nation. Marine Le Pen has described this as the ensauvagement, or savagery, of society. Macron, too, speaks of France’s décivilisation. And so, despite having finished third in the second round of the polls, Le Pen’s National Rally secured 37% of the vote. This compares to 17% in 2022, 9% in 2017, and 4% in 2012.

Among her voters, some 79% identified migration as a core issue, as did 43% of all French. It seems that concern for the social fabric of one’s nation might not be so “far-right” after all.

But for now, chaos rules. The New Popular Front could yet enter into a cohabitation with Macron, who hasn’t dismissed the prospect of such a deal. Mélenchon is demanding to be named prime minister. While Macron cannot allow for this, he might have to find some space to give.

Should the far Left not get what it wants, it could incite more violence. Indeed, France is left with no good options — and with a resurgent Marxist far Left propelled by newly emboldened anti-French and anti-Western elements. Regardless of what form the government now takes, the country’s extant cultural war has likely entered a new and more dangerous phase.

The trajectory of Le Pen’s votes also suggests a more emboldened right.

Matters will likely get worse before, and if, they get better. The challenge facing the West is, indeed, a civilizational one — “a battle of ideas.” This is what was on the ballot in France, along with issues such as benefits and taxes.

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This is, in part, what will be on the ballot in America, too. Are we content with the ensauvagement of our societies? Are we prepared to relinquish our distinct culture and values?

As the French have discovered, this is what is at stake.

Aleksandra Gadzala Tirziu (@awgadzala) is the founder of the geopolitical risk firm Magpie Advisory, a visiting fellow at Independent Women’s Forum, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a contributing editor with the New York Sun.